March Market Insights | NZ Property & Mortgage Trends
March Market Insights: Emerging Mortgage, Investment, & SME Trends
Welcome to our March Market Insights, where we look at the latest news and trends shaping New Zealand’s property and mortgage landscape.
From bold rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to debunking the house price doubling myth and a surge in property listing, this month’s update is packed with valuable insights for buyers, sellers, and investors alike.
RBNZ’s Bold Moves: A New Era of Lower Rates
On 19 February, the RBNZ trimmed the official cash rate (OCR) by 50 basis points—from 4.25% to a historic low of 3.75%. Governor Adrian Orr indicated that this rate reduction is merely the beginning of what could be a series of cuts over the next few months, while leading economists like Kelvin Davidson of CoreLogic NZ predicted that OCR rates could drop to around 3% by July.
Lower rates mean affordable borrowing costs, a welcome relief to individuals navigating a market that remains firmly in favour of buyers. With banks updating home loan products and lenders scrambling to get into line with the central bank’s new position, the message is clear: It’s time to rethink your mortgage strategy!
Whether you’re on the hunt for your first home or planning another investment purchase, rate cuts are reshaping the financial landscape of New Zealand, offering opportunities for cost savings and increased market activity.
Hawkesby Takes the Helm
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr has stepped down and will conclude his term on 31 March. Appointed in 2018, his exit represents a significant shift for the institution. Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby (who will also take on the role of chair for the Monetary Policy Committee) will take on the role of Acting Governor until 31 March, while from 1 April, the Minister of Finance will select a temporary Governor for up to six months.
Debunking the Doubling Myth: House Price Realities
One of the favoured topics of conversation at social gatherings is the supposed rule that house prices double every 10 years. However, a close study of over 22 years’ worth of data by Opes Partners economist Ed McKnight tells a more complex story.
McKnight’s work concludes that houses doubled in a 10-year stretch only approximately 45% of the time. While there have been some fleeting moments of remarkable growth—specifically the five-years between 2002 and 2007- other such intervals have run as long as 14 years, thanks to intervening occurrences like the Global Financial Crisis.
This volatility can also be seen in terms of areas. Take, for instance, homes in Otago and Southland, which doubled in value 74% of the time within a decade, compared with just 21% in Hamilton. The fact is that although real estate investments have seen good returns over the long term, the “doubling rule” is a myth, reliant on a whole lot of timing and local factors.
Surge in Listings: A Market Reawakening
With the rate cuts and shifting trends in property values, there has been a notable surge in market activity. Trade Me Property recently reported a five-year high in residential listings and an 11% rise in year-on-year viewer activity over this January—a dramatic rebound from the typical post-holiday slump. Trade Me Property’s customer director, Gavin Lloyd, attributes it to recent interest rate reductions and renewed interest by Kiwis nationwide.
The increased activity is not contained within a specific area, either. Auckland, Canterbury, and Wellington have all seen significant increases in listings viewed, reflecting buyers and sellers wanting to shop around. With approximately 39,000 houses for sale—a 17% increase year over year—this surge presents a diverse range of opportunities.
Helping SMEs Thrive in 2025: Building Resilience and Seizing Opportunity
Beyond the residential property market, the small and medium enterprise (SME) sector is gearing up for a year of opportunity. The past few years have forced businesses to build resilience, and as 2025 gets into full swing, it’s a prime time to reflect on lessons learned in 2024 and set goals for the future.
Some 55% of SMEs expect better market conditions over the next 12 months, encouraging many to consider expanding market reach, examining pricing, and investing in marketing and promotion.
Yet, there remain concerns. Hiring and staffing, government taxes, and stock management are all still key concerns, which is causing SMEs to manage their cash flow tightly. Keeping three months of cash reserves on hand is advised to see a business through when faced with unexpected challenges. However, the report found that just half of SMEs have a quarter’s worth of costs in savings, while 17% have only one month’s worth in reserve.
This is where advisers can step in as strategic partners. By implementing solid financial strategies—like cash buffers, smart debt management, and the use of flexible products like a Business Line of Credit—advisers can steady SMES’ operations and position them for expansion. Non-bank lenders are increasing in popularity with lines of credit, invoice and asset finance type products. These solutions offer fast, flexible financing solutions especially suited for SMEs with seasonal revenue variability and unexpected expenses.
As SMEs become more prolific users of these solutions, advisers can establish themselves as trusted partners, helping businesses solve cash flow problems and capitalise on growth opportunities.
The Path Forward: Local Expertise at Rapson
Today’s market presents a wealth of possibilities for investors, sellers, and buyers. Armed with Rapson’s strong mix of market data, professional insight, and real-world expertise, you can make your property decisions clearly and confidently. Stay informed, consider all your alternatives, and remember we’re with you every step of the way.
Contact us at Rapson today for further personalised guidance. Together, let’s create a brighter future!
